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Sunday, 15 April 2012

Poisson Distribution

Wikipedia definition : The Poisson distribution is a discrete probability distribution that expresses the probability of a given number of events occurring in a fixed interval of time and/or space if these events occur with a known average rate and independently of the time since the last event.


The major difference between Poisson and Binomial distributions is that the Poisson does not have a fixed number of trials. Instead, it uses the fixed interval of time or space in which the number of successes is recorded.


Ex.1.  On an average Friday, a waitress gets no tip from 5 customers. Find the probability that she will get no tip from 7 customers this Friday.The waitress averages 5 customers that leave no tip on Fridays: λ = 5.
Random Variable : The number of customers that leave her no tip this Friday.
We are interested in P(X = 7).


Ex. 2 During a typical football game, a coach can expect 3.2 injuries. Find the probability that the team will have at most 1 injury in this game.A coach can expect 3.2 injuries : λ = 3.2.
Random Variable : The number of injuries the team has in this game.


 Ex. 3. A small life insurance company has determined that on the average it receives  6 death claims per day. Find the probability that the company receives at least seven death claims on a randomly selected day.
                                                       P(x ≥ 7) = 1 - P(x ≤ 6) =  0.393697



Ex. 4. The number of traffic accidents that occurs on a particular stretch of road during a month follows a Poisson distribution with a mean of  9.4. Find the probability that less than two accidents will occur on this stretch of road during a randomly selected month.
                                         P(x < 2) = P(x = 0) + P(x = 1) =  0.000860

         



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